略论耕地库兹涅茨曲线在我国的适用性

DISCUSSION ON THE APPLICABILITY OF CULTIVATED LAND KUZNETS CURVE IN CHINA

耕地流失是经济发展过程中的一个重要问题,对耕地流失与经济增长的库兹涅茨曲线假说进行分析,以说明耕地库兹涅茨曲线的适用性。选取上海、浙江、江苏、海南、宁夏、河北、河南7省市作为研究区域,根据近20多年来的耕地流失面积与人均GDP统计数据以及产业结构变动情况,结合部分国内学者的研究结果,对耕地库兹涅茨曲线假说进行了验证。研究结果表明,虽然有部分省市符合耕地流失与经济增长的倒U型规律,但是耕地库兹涅茨曲线假说并不具有普遍性。不同的地区、不同的经济发展阶段,耕地流失面积变化具有不同的特点,应该严格保护耕地,控制经济增长的速度,注重提高经济增长的质量与效益,完善耕地保护的政策措施,促进国民经济持续、稳定、健康发展。

Cultivated land decrease is an important issue in the process of economic development. This paper aims at analyzing the applicability of the hypothesis of Kuznets Curve between cultivated land decrease and economic development. The authors analyzed the relationship of cultivated land decrease and GDP per capita in seven sample areas-Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hainan, Ningxia, Hebei and Henan -by collecting and analyzing the data of cultivated land loss,GDP per capita and industrial structure. The results showed that cultivated land kuznets curve is not a general discipline regarding that the relationship between culti-vated land loss and GDP per capita in some areas is like the curve of inverted ＂U＂. In different areas and different economic development stages, the trend of cultivated land loss has different features. We should take strict measures for the protection of cultivated land,keep a rational economic growth rate,improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth and perfect the policy of cultivated land protection so as to promote the sustainable,stable and healthy development of economy.