彩票号码选择的行为经济学分析

On the Number Selection of Lottery in the Behavior Economic Perspective

本文对彩票购买者在购买彩票时选择投注号码的行为是否有悖于经济理性进行了分析,并利用中国福利彩票"3D游戏"2006年全年357期的开奖数据对国内彩票购买者的选择号码的行为模式进行了统计分析。分析显示,国内彩票购买者在进行投注时确实在按照一些特定的模式进行投注号码选择。这些模式包括:赌徒谬误、幸运号码偏好、大号码偏好、相同号码偏好、日历号码偏好等。这些模式可能是由于彩票购买者具有共同的社会和文化背景造成的,也可能是部分购买者不具有经济理性的反映。这些模式的存在为进一步研究彩票市场上可能存在的非理性行为提供了必要的基础。

This paper analyzes whether the number selection of the Chinese lottery buyers is contrary to economic rationale and makes a statistical analysis of the behavior patterns of the national lottery buyers by using the data from the 357 ＂3D Game＂ China Welfare Lottery drawings of 2006. The analysis shows that the national lottery ticket buyers follow specific patterns when selecting numbers. These patterns include： gambler＇ s misconception, lucky number preference, large number preference, same number preference, calendar number preference, and so on. These patterns are possibly caused either by similar social and cultural backgrounds or by lottery buyers＇ lack of economic rationale. The existence of these patterns can not completely prove the existence of irrationality kn lottery ticket buyers＇ logic. However, they provide necessary basic materials for further study of irrational behavior that may exist in lottery market.