对外贸易、制度变迁与地区经济增长的差异性

Foreign trade,institutional changes and difference in regional economic growth

国际经验表明对外贸易能促进制度变迁,从而加速经济增长。鉴于中国各地区对外贸易发展水平和结构非常不均衡,针对单一省份的实证检验显得更有意义。本文采用协整的向量误差修正模型,以省份为单位检验了对外贸易、制度变迁与地区经济增长之间的协整关系和因果关系,针对"对外贸易发展——促进制度变迁——加速经济增长"的作用机制在不同地区的不同表现,本文提出了相应的政策建议以促进对外贸易与地区经济协调发展。

International experiences show that international trade can promote institutional changes, thus accelerate economic growth. In view of the disequilibrium of international trade development level and mode among the areas in China, empirical investigation based on single province would be the best approach. In this paper, based on provincial data, cointegrated vector auto- regression model is employed to investigate the cointegration and causal relationship between international trade, institutional changes and regional economic growth. It is found that the mechanism of ＂foreign trade development--promoting iustitutional changes＇--accelerating economic growth＂ functions differently among areas. At last, some suggestions are made to encourage the harmonious development of foreign trade and economic growth.