收敛抑或发散:来自中国区域经济非平衡增长的经验证据

Convergence and Divergence: an Empirical Evidence from the Unbalance Growth of China Regional Economy

按照共同的确定性线性时间趋势,可将我国28个省市自治区划分为四个区域(直辖市、经济发达、经济较发达和经济落后区域),这些区域的经济增长存在着四个"俱乐部"收敛的特征。同时,在直辖市和经济发达区域的"俱乐部"之间还存在着绝对β-收敛的趋势。另外,在经济发达、经济较发达和经济落后区域的"俱乐部"之间,经济差距存在显著的持续扩大趋势。可以证明中国区域经济平衡非增长现象严重,贫富差距逐步扩大。

According to the common deterministic trends, firstly, it is found that 28 provinces are classified into four areas （duchy cities, the developed area, relatively developed area and under-developed area）. Secondly, the regional economic growth is fallen into club convergence across 28 provinces in China. Otherwise, the regional economic growth take on the character of absolute β- convergences between duchy cities and the developed area. Therefore, the regional economic development is serious unbalance across the four areas in China, the gap between the poor regions and the rich ones is extend progressively.