区域水资源可持续利用状态预警的ANN模型

ANN model for state early-warning on the sustainable utilization of regional water resources

在构建区域水资源可持续利用评价指标体系的基础上,阐述区域水资源可持续利用状态预警的方法,建立了人工神经网络(artificial neural network,ANN)模型,度量区域水资源可持续利用风险强弱程度,并进行实例应用.结果表明:该模型有较好的客观性和实效性,可为行政管理部门对区域水资源实施预警提供依据.

On the basis of constructing the indicators for forecasting sustainable utilization of regional water resources, the state early-warning ANN model and approach are proposed. Meanwhile, strong or weak risk level of water resources use is evaluated. By taking example of applications and analyzing the changes of the results, the countermeasures are found to achieve the effect of state early warning. Results show that ANN model is of objectivity and effectiveness, and provides a basis for the implementation of scientific management and decision-making on water resources.