对中国通货膨胀的基本判断及货币政策建议

Fundamental Assessment and Money Policy Suggestions for China's Inflation

中国宏观经济正处于一个通货膨胀的通道之中,但中国强有力的货币政策措施效果不显著。究其原因,在于本轮通货膨胀具有不同以往的外源性特征,其中包含了美国美元贬值阴谋。正因为中国通货膨胀仅仅是全球性通货膨胀的一部分,同时中国承担着全球性通货膨胀成本,因此解决通货膨胀问题,并非中国的"家务事"。在此背景中,针对国内通货膨胀问题,中国不能急于求成,而只能顺势而为,以财政政策为主,来弱化通胀之负作用。货币政策作为辅助性政策,仅需要保持从紧状态,避免信贷失控即可。

China＇s macroeconomy is going through a period of inflation, but China＇s strong monetary policy measures are not having much effect. The reason for this lies in the fact that the external factors are different from past rounds of inflation, including the US plot to devalue the country＇s currency. Precisely because the inflation in China is only a part of the world-wide inflation and China is bearing the cost of world-wide inflation, solving the problem of inflation is not really part of China＇s job. Against this backdrop, China cannot be in a rush to address the problem of domestic inflation, but must go with the flow, mainly using fiscal policy to soften the impact of inflation complemented by monetary policy and maintain tight fiscal and monetary policies to avoid runaway credit and money growth.