人民币实际汇率变动对中国机电产品进出口的影响

Influence of Adjustment of the RMB Exchange Rate on China's Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products

人民币实际有效汇率对机电产品进出口贸易影响显著。人民币实际有效汇率与机电产品进出口贸易额之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;汇率变动是进出口贸易额变化的长期Granger原因;进出口贸易受到实际有效汇率变动冲击后会向长期均衡值回归,但回归的调整速度相对较小。因此,Marshall-Lerner条件成立,人民币实际有效汇率波动对机电产品进出口贸易的影响存在J曲线效应。

The effect of the actual effective RMB exchange rate on the import and export trade in electrical equipment is fairly pronounced. The relationship between the actual effective RMB exchange rate and the import and export trade volume in electrical equipment is long-term, stable and balanced. Changes in the exchange rate are a long-term Granger cause of changes in the import and export trade volume. The impact of changes in the exchange rate on the import and export trade tends to push the relationship back to a long-term balanced one but the rate of change in approaching this equilibrium is fairly slow and demonstrates the establishment of Marshall-Lerner conditions. Fluctuations in the actual effective RMB exchange rate have a J curve effect on the import and export trade in electrical equipment.