宁夏地质灾害气象预报预警研究

Study on meteorological forecast and early warning of geological disasters in Ningxia

利用1982-2004年宁夏的地质灾害与降水资料,分析了宁夏主要地质灾害的分布规律和形成机理,重点研究了引发地质灾害的气象条件。结果表明,滑坡和泥石流是宁夏主要的地质灾害类型,它们形成的气候条件都与降雨有直接的关系;地质灾害主要集中在其易发区内强降雨和暴雨出现频次较多的季节,由降雨引发的滑坡等地质灾害大多发生于降雨时段的中后期或稍后,泥石流一般与暴雨、持续降雨同时发生,雨量越大的地区地质灾害越发育,而连续性降水、短时强降水和暴雨是造成地质灾害的主要气象诱因。同时,根据研究结果,采用统计学方法建立了宁夏汛期地质灾害潜势预报模型,通过2004年汛期业务试运行,表明该预报模型有一定的参考价值,但还需进一步改进。

The distribution law and formative mechanism of mainly geologic disaster were analyzed using the data of rainfall and geologic disaster in Ningxia. The results show that the landslide and debris flow are main geologic disaster in Ningxia, and the geologic disaster occurs when rainfall are excessive and there are more rainstorm. The landslide caused by precipitation occurs in medium to late-term of precipitation or slightly after precipitation process in general. But the debris flow happens while rainstorm or persistent precipitation occurs. The primary weather reasons of the geologic disaster are the excessive precipitation in short-time and the rainstorm. The prediction model of geologic disaster are established by means of using statistical methods. Through trial run of the model in flood period in 2004, it is shown that the model is available. However, the model should be improved still furthers.