棉蚜种群数量的动态分析

Trend analysis and periodic analysis of aphid population

【目的】为棉蚜防治提供参考依据。【方法】于1990-04-10对大田棉蚜种群数量进行调查统计，对棉蚜种群数量的周期性及趋势性进行分析。【结果】棉蚜种群数量的趋势性曲线可以用一个多项式来拟合；棉蚜的在一年之内的周期可以分为两段：前55d可看作一个周期，后128d可看作一个周期，并根据周期相角重新给出棉蚜种群数量的周期函数。【结论】建立了棉蚜种群数量的一般动态模型，该模型由趋势项和周期项组成。

[Objective] The study was done in order to provide reference for cotton aphidrs effective control. [Method] The number of cotton aphid from April to October in 1990 was investigated,and then trend analysis and periodic analysis were made with labrs data. [Result] The year trend of cotton aphid could be simulated with a three cubed polynomial. Furthermore,Cotton＇s year periodicity could be divided into two periodicities,front 55 d first periodicity,the other latter 128 d,and a new periodicity＇s function was also given with new phase angle. [Conclusion] The study established a general dynamic model of cotton aphid,which was formed by a trend term and a periodicity term.