不确定判断与阅读多选题的猜测策略

Applying the Uncertainty Theory to Guessing in Reading Tests

本研究应用不确定判断理论，采用有声思维的方法，探讨受试在不确定的情况下如何猜测多项选择阅读题。研究发现受试采用了代表性、可得性、锚定与调整等搜索性策略。而锚定与调整策略最为有效，常被用作“锚”去调整猜测的有背景知识、常识、逻辑推理、应试型知识等。这一发现对命题有启示，有助于改善试题质量，降低猜测的命中率，提高考试效度。

This study aims for an understanding of how candidates work out answers to multiple-choice reading comprehension questions where uncertainty arises. One participant was invited to guess the answers of 18 authentic multiple-choice reading comprehension questions and at the same time perform think-aloud. It was found that he succeeded in getting 7 of the 18 questions right. And this guessing was aided by such knowledge as background information, common sense, logic, and testwiseness. The results were discussed in light of Kahneman＇s theory of uncertainty and in terms of their implications for improving reading comprehension questions, reducing the probability of guessing and enhancing test validity.