北京奥运会实现“119工程”田径项目目标的分析

The Forecast and Analysis of the Strategic Goals for the Track and Field Events in National "119 Project" in 2008 Beijing Olympic Games

运用文献资料法、统计分析法、灰色预测法,总结了近年来中国田径主要项目的实力和特点,进而对北京奥运会田径各单项前三名及中国运动员前三名的成绩区间进行了动态灰色预测,并着重对相关项目的发展态势进行了实力分析和稳定性检验。研究结果表明:近年来中国田径整体成绩会有一个较大幅度的攀升,成绩发展轨迹爆发性强,呈现出跳动式前进的特点;在北京奥运会上,大部分重点夺金项目、优势项目成绩的不稳定性突出,波动幅度偏大;依据预测与分析结果,中国要实现"119工程"制定的田径项目战略目标,具有夺金、争牌、前八名项目的实力要保持和提升,应落实分层规划与安排实施、加强人才梯队建设。

By using the methods of documentary analysis, dynamic gray forecast, mathematical statistics, comparatice analysis, etc. , the authors summarize the main features of the National track and field, forecast the International and National top 3 in each individual event in the 2008 Beijing Olympics Games, and then state the development of the track and field events. The results show that the events of aiming at gold medals are with great advantage. Therefore, the main proposals are brought forward.