人民币升值抑制通胀效应的实证检验

An Empirical Test on the Effect of Restraining Inflation of RMB Appreciation

实证研究发现,短期内,人民币汇率与通胀之间既不存在直接关系,也不存在间接关系,也就是说,人民币升值无法起到抑制通胀作用。因此,目前针对汇率杠杆的政策操作思路不应是放任升值,而是要采取有效措施,防范投机性资本大规模流入,稳定有效汇率,弱化升值预期,以免人民币升值过速对出口以至国内经济造成严重的负面冲击。

It shows from the empirical analysis that there is neither direct nor indirect relation between RMB exchange rate and inflation in the short run.It means that appreciation of RMB can't restrain in- flation.So,the correct thought of policy operation about the lever of exchange rate isn't indul- ging RMB appreciation,but taking effective measures to prevent large scale inflow of internation- al speculative capital;stabilize effective exchange rate and depress appreciation expectation,lest excessive appreciation and its negative impact to export and domestic economy will take place.