摘要
借鉴已有的理论与实证研究成果，构建房价的理论模型，然后利用我国2000年第一季度2007年第二季度的数据进行实证研究，结果表明：居民可支配收入和土地价格与我国房价成正相关关系；而实际利率与我国房价成负相关关系。据此采用协整分析和H-P滤波，分析我国房地产均衡价格水平，以及房地产价格偏离均衡价格的程度，认为我国房地产市场价格的偏离主要受部分地区的影响，存在“局部泡沫”。
Based on the existent theories and empirical researches, the theoretic model of house price is constructed. Then empirical research has done on data from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2007 in China. It concludes that house price in China is positively related to disposable income of residents and land price, while negatively related to real interest rate. The paper calculates the equilibrium price of real estate and the deviation extent in China by means of Co-integration Test and H-P Filter. It indicates that the deviated price in China is caused mainly by economic bubble in some regions.
出处
《财经理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第4期116-119,共4页
The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(07BJY057)
教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(06JA790096)
关键词
旁地产价格
偏离程度
协整理论
Real estate prices
Deviation extent
Co-integration theory
