制衡时代的到来——单极体系的崩溃

Advent of the Age of Equilibrium——Downfall of Unipolar World

均势理论具有永恒的生命力。冷战后制衡美国的传统均势行动,如军备竞赛与大国同盟并没有明显出现,这是因为均势的生成机制与表现方式发生变化。核均势的存在与单极体系的压倒性优势使制衡行动以经济力量的消长表现出来。伊战后美国力量衰落,次强大国以经济振兴制衡霸权力量的均势行动显示效力。中日政治和解与日本顺应均势是制衡时代来临的真正标志。如何帮助美国以最恰当的方式融入全球均势将是今后国际政治面临的最重大的挑战。

The theory of the equilibrium has eternal validity. The conventional forms of containment actions against the US, like the arms race and alliance of great powers, do not appear noticeably in the post-Cold War period. This is due to the fact that the mechanisms for creating the equilibrium and expression forms concerned are altered. The existence of of the Iraq War, the equihbrium actions of sub-powers to contain the hegemonic power with the economic rehabilitation has demonstrated effectiveness. Sino-Japan politic reconciliation and Japan＇s pursuit for an independent foreign policy are real indications of the advent of the age of containment. How to help the United States integrate into the global equihbrium in the most appropriate way is the biggest challenge that faces the international community in the future.