能源消费与出口贸易:来自广东省的实证分析

Energy Consumption and Export: Empirical Evidence Study from Guangdong Province

运用协整模型和格兰杰因果关系模型,分析广东省1987年以来能源消费与出口贸易的关系。结果表明:广东省能源消费和出口贸易关系显著;能源消费是出口贸易的单方向格兰杰原因;这种长期关系是稳定的,并没有随时间而发生结构性变化。据此得出结论:广东省出口贸易过分地依靠了能源消费。

Using co- integration model and Granger causality model, this paper analyzes the relations between the energy consumption and the export in Guangdong Province since 1987. The result is as follows： the positive relationship between the energy consumption and the export is significant; energy consumption Granger causes export and export does not Granger cause energy consumption; the relation is steady and there is not structural change in it between these two time series. So, export depends on energy consumption too much in Guangdong province.