济阳坳陷砂岩储层预测失利的分析与思考

Analysis and consideration of the defeat prediction of sandstone reservoir in Jiyang Depression.

由济阳坳陷近2年失利探井的分析可以看出,储层预测失利井占总失利井的28%,提高储层预测精度成为隐蔽油气藏勘探的关键环节。从岩性、物性和含油气性3个方面对储层预测失利井进行了解剖,明确了现今条件下利用叠后地震属性等分析手段,难以对砂砾岩体的有效储层进行预测,对薄层砂体的叠置关系及油藏变化的预测也存在较大的风险。从技术和应用两个层面对储层预测偏差的原因进行深入思考,提出了加强失利井分析、严格储层地震预测的关键步骤等方案以降低预测风险。这将促进砂岩储层地震预测的规范化,提高预测的成功率。

The analysis about the defeat explore wells in Jiyang Depression in the past two years shows that the ratio of reservoir defeat wells to all defeat wells amounts to 28%,and improving reservoir pre- diction accuracy has become the key to the exploration of subtle hydrocarbon reservoirs.The dissection about the defeat wells an- alyzed from the prediction of lithology,physical property and hy- drocarbon-bearing probability respectively suggests that it is dif- ficult to predict the effective reservoir based on the post-stack seismic attributes at present,and there is big risk in the predic- tion of superimposed relation of thin layer sandbodies and the variation of oil pools.Considering the reasons resulting the reser- voir estimate deviation from the technique and application,the project to reduce the estimate risk by strengthening defeat wells analysis and keeping the key steps of the reservoir seismic pre- diction strictly was put forward.It has an aggressive function to make the seismic prediction more canonical and raise the success rate of estimation in sandstone reservoir.