GKF算法下对机动目标多步预测的误差分析

GKF-based error analysis of multi-step forecast for maneuvering target

机动目标运动状态的多步预测是为了更好的为机动目标的跟踪提供数据支持,因此要保证多步预测数据的可用性,需要知道预测的精度,由此要对预测数据做误差分析。本文在对机动目标运动轨迹实施多步预测的基础上分析了多步预测过程中随机误差的传递,以及传递的随机误差对多步预测的影响。仿真结果显示,预测中传递误差方差占预测误差方差的绝大部分,是影响预测精度的最重要因素之一。

The multi - step forecast for movement of maneuvering target is to give a better data support of track- ing the maneuvering target , so , to make sure the availability of the forecast data be guaranteed, we need know the precise of forecast data, and we should do error analysis . In this paper , we analysis the transfer of the random error on the basis of multi - step forecast applied to the tracking of maneuvering target , and also analysis the affection of the transferred - error to the forecast data . The final simulation result shows that the transfer error takes almost all the part of the forecast error , it is the mainly fact that affect the forecast precise.