对地震预报的科学思考(一)--地震预报某些经验与做法的再认识及思考地震预报问题的基本出发点

On the Earthquake Prediction(Ⅰ)——Discussion about some experience and its basic point for earthquake prediction in China

地震预报具有明显的双重属性:科学性和社会性。该文着重对地震预报科学性的问题做了评述,强调地震预报必须以一定的科学理论为指导,以科学的观测资料为基础,以预报经验为借鉴。文中对当前中国地震"活跃期"与"平静期"的划分以及根据地震前兆持续时间将地震孕育过程划分"长、中、短、临"四个阶段和相应的地震"渐近式"预报程式,和"以场求源"的预报思路做了简要的评论。此外,强调论及地震预报必须以浅源地震发生的物理实质及对孕震物理过程的基本认识作为思考问题的基本出发点。

There are two obvious features for the earthquake prediction, including both science feature and society feature. The discussion is mainly focused on the science feature for earthquake prediction in this paper. It is strengthened that the earthquake prediction should be made according to some scientific theories and based on scientific observational data as well as using the prediction experience as reference. The division of the seismically active period and the seismically quiet period for earthquake tendency prediction, the division of earthquake pregnant process into the four periods, that is long term, middle term, short term and imminent term, based on the lasting time of the precursory occurrence and the so-called gradually proceeding prediction are discussed. In addition, the predicting thought that the seismic source might be found by looking into the precursors distributed in large area is also discussed. Moreover, we emphasized that the physical essence of earthquake occurrence at shallow depth and the basic recognition about the pregnant procedure should be used as the basic point to think about the problems concerning about earthquake prediction.