塔里木河干流生态风险评价

Ecological Risk Assessment of Ecosystems in the Mainstream Area of the Tarim River

干旱区内陆河流域的自然地理背景决定了生态的脆弱性,流域生态系统孕含着一定的风险性。从塔里木河干流自然条件和人为干扰状况出发,建立塔里木河干流生态风险评价指标体系,并运用AHP-模糊综合评价方法构建了塔里木河干流生态风险评价模型。在此基础上,通过加权平均方法对模糊评价结果进行处理,借助ARC-G IS的地统计分析工具,生成风险评价结果图。研究表明:塔里木河干流的生态风险分布具有明显的空间差异性。并且,生态风险指数由上游的2.5增加为下游的4.1,生态风险大的区域主要分布在干流下游地区。加大对生态风险敏感因素的控制与管理力度是降低生态风险与维持生态稳定的重要途径。

Entironment fragility is mainly affected by the physiogeographic background in the continental drainage basins in arid areas, and the ecosystems in such drainage basins have a certain risk. By developing an evaluation index system and using AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, in this paper an ecological risk assessment of ecosystems in the mainstream area of the Tarim River is carried out based on considering the natural conditions and human disturbance. On which the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results are processed with weighted average, and a map of ecological risk assessment results is charted by applying the Geostatistical Analysis of ARCGIS. The study result shows that the spatial difference of the ecological risk in the mainstream area of the Tarim River is significant, the ecological risk index is increased from 2.5 in the upper reaches to 4.1 in the lower reaches of mainstream of the Tarim River, and the areas with high ecological risk are mainly distributed in the lower reaches of mainstream of the Tarim River. It is an important way for reducing the ecological risk and maintaining the ecological stabilization to increase the control and management of the sensitive factors of ecological risk, that means to rationally redistribute and effectively utilize water resources, make the existing water conservancy projects into full play, build up the perfect monitoring and early-warning systems of ecological risk, develop the ecological compensation system, and enhance the property right of natural resources.