通货膨胀的惯性特征及其货币政策启示

The Nature of Inflation Persistence and its Implications for Monetary Policy

通货膨胀惯性是指通货膨胀在受到随机扰动因素冲击后偏离其长期均衡水平的趋势会持续很久,通常用通胀自回归模型中滞后项系数之和来度量。混合的新凯恩斯主义菲利普斯曲线令人信服地解释了通货膨胀惯性的微观基础,即价格粘性和经济参与人的后视行为。高通货膨胀惯性会削弱货币政策调控的效果,提高中央银行反通胀的社会成本。中央银行承诺在较长时期内钉住一个稳定的名义锚(例如明确或隐性的通货膨胀目标制)则是降低通货膨胀惯性的有效途径。

Inflation Persistence is defined as how long the deviation of inflation from its long-term equilibrium level will last after a stochastic shock and is measured usually by the sum of autoregressive coefficients. The Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve provides credible micro foundations for inflation persistence,These are price stickiness and economic agents＂ backward-looking behavior.High inflation persistence could weaken the efficacy of monetary policy manipulation and increase the social cost of central banks＂ anti-inflation efforts. However,central banks＂ commitment to a stable nominal anchor（for example,explicit or implicit inflation targeting）in a long period is an effective approach to decrease inflation persistence.