新加坡的管理浮动汇率制度

Singapore's Managed Floating Rate System

目前,国内对新加坡管理浮动汇率制度的研究以定性讨论为主。本文从定量角度出发,研究新加坡管理浮动汇率制的运作,并以经济特征相似、实行货币局制度(典型的固定汇率制)的香港为参照系,评价新加坡管理浮动汇率的宏观经济表现是否更好。我们认为新加坡管理浮动汇率制使得其经济增长更快、更稳定,通货膨胀率更低,波动性更小。我国多年来实行的实际固定汇率制带来了与香港相似的宏观经济后果,实行管理浮动汇率制对我国具有重要意义。

Existing literature on Singapore＇s managed floating rate system is confined to qualitative research. In this article, we conduct quantitative research. Firstly, we use econometrics to explore what exactly Monetary Authority of Singapore （MAS） behaves under managed floating regime. Secondly, we compare the macroeconomic performance of Singapore with that of Hong Kong, which has similar economic character but holds currency board regime. The conclusion is that managed floating regime ensures stable GDP growth of Singapore. And for China, managed floating regime is of great significance.