基于资源消耗的中国城市规模研究

A study on Chinese city scale on the perspective of resource consumption

本文首先构建了城市规模-资源消耗理论模型,然后利用变截距模型对我国1996—2005年的面板数据进行分析。结果显示:我国的城市规模-资源消耗经验模型为正N型曲线,最优城市规模为1060万人,适度城市规模是400—600万人和1000—1200万人。进一步对分区域的模型进行比较发现:东部经验模型是单调递减直线,中、西部都是正N形曲线。除部分省会城市外,我国大部分城市正处于资源消耗上升阶段,不利于资源的可持续利用,要求在城市化过程中要强调集约化的内涵发展,以缓解资源对可持续发展的制约。

At the start, we develop a theoretical model of city scale - resource consumption, and then we use variable - intercept model to analyze the panel data in 1996 - 2005. The results show that： the empirical model of city scale - resource consumption is a normal N - shape curve; the optimal city scale corresponds to a population of 10. 60 million; and appropriate city scale could correspond to a population of 4 million - 6million or 10 million - 12 million. We further compare the models of different regions and find that： the empirical model of the east areas shows a monotone decreasing straight line, while the models of the middle and west areas show normal N - shape curve. Except some provincial capital cities, most cities in China stay at a stage of resource consumption increase, which could be disadvantageous to the consistent use of resources. During the urbanization process, intensive development should be stressed so as to mitigate the constraints of resources on sustainable development.