我国相机抉择财政政策周期性的经验研究--基于结构预算的多模型分析

Empirical research on pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical fiscal policy——Multi-model analysis based on structural budget

利用状态空间模型估计了我国潜在产出和产出缺口,进而测算我国结构预算余额,在此基础上运用多种模型对我国相机抉择财政政策的周期性进行了理论分析和实证检验.研究结果都表明,我国相机抉择财政政策在经济周期下降期表现出显著反周期性,而在经济周期扩张期里,情况较为复杂,在产出缺口为正,即经济过热区域,相机抉择财政政策是反周期的,在经济扩张期中产出缺口为负的区域,其为顺周期的.

In this Paper, potential output and output gap in China are estimated by neo-Keynesian dynamic model. Then Structural budget balance and cyclical budget balance are estimated with the results above. On the basis of which, theoretical analysis and empirical test of counter-cyclical character of discretional fiscal policy are done. The results show that discretional fiscal policy is counter-cyclical while economic cycle falls. While economic grows, discretional fiscal policy is counter-cyclical in the regimes where output gap is positive and is pro-cyclical in the regimes where output gap is negative.