某岩溶隧道涌水预报模型构建与应用

Establishment and Application of Water Bursting Prediction Model for Karst Tunnels

研究目的:在对以往典型岩溶涌水隧道实测预报资料分析的基础上,对岩溶隧道涌水预报变量选取及数学模型构建进行研究,探索岩溶隧道涌水多源协同预报模型。研究结论:采用多元统计方法,构建了以地层节理密度增量、地层水压、纵横波速度比、视电阻率为预报变量的涌水预报数学模型。模型对于挖掘与整合探测信息、增加预报可靠性起到了积极作用,也为探索多源协同预报的实用技术进行了有益的尝试。

Research purposes： The studies are done on the variable selection and establishment of mathematical model for the water bursting prediction for karst tunnels on the basis of the analysis of the measured data and the prediction data of the previously typical water bursting of karst tunnels for the purpose of probing into the multi - source cooperative prediction model for the water bursting of karst tunnels. Research conclusions：With multivariate statistical analysis method, the mathematical water bursting prediction model is established, taking stratum joint density increment, ground water pressure, ratio between longitudinal waves and transverse waves and apparent resistance as prediction variables. The established model can bring active effect on the full use and integration of the available geo - physical prospecting information and improving the reliability of water bursting prediction, and is helpful to the probing into the practical multi -source cooperative prediction technology.