基于生态位的河南各地市旅游竞争力动态分析及预测

Dynamic Analysis and Forecast in Tourism Competitiveness of Cities in Henan Province Based on Niche

生态位理论在旅游竞争力的研究中具有重要的指导意义。从生态位的概念出发,构建了影响旅游竞争力的评价体系。根据对河南省18地市2000—2005年与旅游业相关指标的数据收集,采用因子分析法获得了18地市在河南省中的竞争生态位,进而采用Arcview、SPSS13.0等软件对18地市进行了时空对比和相关性分析,旨在探索18地市处于目前生态位的原因及未来发展趋势。

Niche theory had important guiding significance in tourism competitiveness study. This paper constructed the evaluation system of competitiveness of the tourism from the concept of niche. Based on tourism related indicators and data collection of the Henan 18 cities of 2000- 2005, using the factor analysis of SPSS13.0 statistical software, accessed to the competitive niche of 18 dries in Henan Province.Furthermore,this paper gave out a comparative analysis from all over time and space dimensions to explore the reasons of 18 cities in the current niche and forecasted the future trends.