我国物价变动的影响因素及其传导机制的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Causes and Conductive Mechanism of Price Change in China

本文主要研究宏观经济变量对价格水平的影响、上下游物价之间的传导机制以及经济变量变化的时滞关系,着重考察相关经济变量之间是否存在因果关系、先行关系以及刻画影响程度的脉冲响应。实证结果表明,在影响物价的因素方面,工业增加值、投资、消费、进口与出口以及M1、M2均为CPI的Granger原因,但财政支出与贷款增量不是CPI的Granger原因,其中工业增加值、M1和进口、出口还是领先于CPI变动的稳定的先行指标;在物价传导方面,市场化程度较高的领域,价格传导畅通,而垄断行业或政府控制部门价格传导不畅或严重时滞。

This paper studies the macroeconomic causes of price change and price conductive mechanism and focuses on the causal relationship, time lag and impulse-response between relevant economic variables. Empirical results show that the variables of M1 , M2, industrial value-added, investment, consumption, imports and exports are all the Granger causes of CPI, further more, industrial value-added, M1 , imports and exports are leading indicators of CPI, but fiscal expenditure and commercial loan aren＇t that of it. Moreover the conduction of price is well done in the high degree of market-economic sectors, but is clogged in the monopolized or price-controlled industries.