摘要
国家"十一五"规划提出到2010年万元产值能耗降低20%,这个宏伟目标的实现对于降低我国能源消耗和改善大气环境质量具有重要的意义。本文基于历史序列的分析,提出了区域经济-能源消耗的"学习曲线",运用30个省区1990—2005年的时间序列数据,建立了万元产值能耗随人均国民生产总值(GDP)增加而逐步下降的能源学习曲线。基于此理论曲线,分析并计算了"十一五"期间不同省区万元产值的节能潜力和在全国总节能目标中的分担率。
In the 11^th five-year plan, a target of reducing energy intensity by 20% by 2010 has been set. The realization of the magnificent goal has important significance to lower energy consumption and improve air quality. Based on the analysis of historical sequence, this paper puts forward ＂learning curve＂ of regional economy-energy consumption, and then according to time series data of 30 provinces from 1990 to 2005, ＂learning curve＂ of energy intensity and per capita GDP has been built. Based on this theory curve, energy-saving potentials of per 10^4 ￥ energy consumption and area sharing rate during the 11 th five-year plan period have been analyzed and calculated.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第1期43-46,共4页
Statistical Research
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“中国旅游业国际竞争力测评及提升战略研究”(03BJY0088)资助
陕西师范大学研究生创新基金项目资助
关键词
学习曲线
节能潜力
能耗强度
区域差异
learning curve
Energy-saving potentials
Energy intensity
Regional differences
