“良心”与地震预报

CONSCIENCE AND EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

地震科学水平和地震预报的社会实践，形成研究人员不同的“良心”心理活动。积极的“良心”心理活动，有促进地震预报研究发展，相对提高预报成功率的作用；消极的心理活动，则干扰地震预报决策，或涣散军心，增加预报失误。为此，在震情严峻的情况下，应减轻预报人员的心理负担，在基层地震部门，更要疏导地震工作者的消极心理。

The psychological actions of different conscience of researcher are formed in the practice of earthquake prediction. The psychological action of active conscience can promoted the development of earthquake prediction, improving the success ratio of prediction, and passive one can disturb prediction decision or scatter fighting will, and increase false prediction. In order to improve prediction success ratio, the psychological load of predictor should be mitigated.