某省艾滋病感染概率及转化概率的模型分析

Analysis of infection and transmission probability of HIV/AIDS by the dynamic model in some province

目的:采用模型分析方法对某省艾滋病感染概率及转化概率进行研究,揭示艾滋病的传播模式。方法:采用离散型HIV/AIDS传播动力学模型计算2006年某省艾滋病感染概率及转化概率。结果:2006年该省每个HIV感染者转化为AIDS患者的概率是37.78%,每个易感者感染HIV病毒的概率是0.14%。结论:易感者仍有一定的概率感染HIV病毒,HIV感染者转化为AIDS患者的转化概率仍然较高,政府仍需不断加强艾滋病的防治工作。

Aim： To study the prevalence of HIV/AIDS through the infection and the transmission probability in one province. Methods ：The values of two parameters were calculated by the dynamic model. Results： In 2006, the transmis- sion probability from infectors to patients was 37.98% ; the infection probability of HIV was 0. 14%. Gonclusion： It is probable for the susceptible population to be infected by HIV and the transmission probability from HIV infectors to AIDS patients is still high. The government should pay more attention to the preventing and treatment of AIDS.