中国财政赤字与经济增长之间的经验研究

On the Experience between the Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth in China

分析了1978～2006年中国财政赤字和国内生产总值的变化趋势，运用协整理论和Granger因果关系检验理论，就中国财政赤字的经济带动效应进行了经验分析。结论表明，1986～2006年、1982～2006年，中国财政赤字带动了经济发展，财政赤字每增加1单位，国内生产总值将发生0．69、0．70单位的增量变化。从因果关系检验来看，财政赤字与国内生产总值之间有显著的单向因果关系，国内生产总值的增长是财政赤字增加的原因。

This thesis analyzes the great changes of fiscal deficit and GDP during the course of 1978 - 2006. On the basis of the study of fiscal deficit and GDP, the theorem of cointegration and Granger causality are introduced in order to testify the economic effect of fiscal deficit in China in the period of 1986- 2006 and 1982 -2006. The article suggests that the fiscal deficit promotes the economic growth , and GDP will increase 0.69 and 0.70 unit when fiscal deficit enhances 1 unit. We can see the single directional causality exists between fiscal deficit and GDP and the growth of GDP is the reason of the increase of fiscal deficit.