农业结构调整对我国粮食供应的影响研究

Impacts of Agricultural Structural Adjustment on Grain Supply in China

农业结构调整是现阶段中国农业中心政策之一，由此引起的耕地转用是当前导致粮食供应减少的重要原因。同时，农业结构的内部调整导致的饲料粮需求增加也从另一个方面影响了中国的粮食供应。定量研究农业结构调整对中国国家及区域尺度的粮食供应的显性影响和隐性影响，预测2010年全国和各省农业结构调整的耕地转用空间。结果表明：1998-2004年，全国由此造成的粮食供应减少量为10781．46万t，其中，显性减少和隐性减少分别占约28．8％和71．2％。在国家尺度上，截至2010年，在保证粮食安全的前提下仅有2．9％左右的转用空间，不同省份的耕地转用空间相差很大，因此各省应根据实际情况制定不同的农业结构调整政策。图1，表4，参12。

Agricultural structural adjustment is a core instrument in China＇ s policy on agriculture, as a result of the adjustment, cultivated land transfer is an important cause of grain supply decreasing in China. In the meantime increasing the production of meat, eggs, and milk increased the contradiction between the supply of and the demand for grain in China. In the paper, the loss of grain supply originating from agricultural structural adjustment was divided into obvious loss and recessive loss. The impacts of these changes on grain supply between 1998 and 2004 are identified and quantified at the national level and regional levels. The data on cultivated land diverted to other purposes are presented for the benefit of the decision maker. The paper concludes that the policy had significant impacts on China＇ s grain supply, which declined 1.07×108 tons from 1998 to 2004. The obvious loss and the recessive loss about accounted for 28.8 % and 71.2 %, respectively. Only 2.9 % of the culti-vated land can be potentially converted by 2010 at the national level. Regional disparities in the extent of reduction in grain supply loss and in land conversion are highlighted with reference to different economic conditions and policy directions.