摘要
应用统计降尺度法将全球气候模式和两参数月水量平衡模型进行耦合,研究未来A2气候情景下丹江口水库径流变化趋势。首先应用统计降尺度法在CGCM2和HadCM3模式下分别预测未来汉江流域上游的月降水和气温情况,然后将它们输入两参数月水量平衡模型,模拟预测丹江口水库的月径流过程。结果表明,在CGCM2气候模式下,丹江口水库径流在2020s和2050s时段比近期减少,2080s时段比近期增加;在HadCM3气候模式下,丹江口水库径流在未来三个时段均比近期增加。
Under the A2 climatic scenario, the runoff trend of Danjiangkou reservoir was predicted by coupling the general circulation models and monthly water balance model. The future monthly precipitation and temperature of the upper Hanjiang basin was predicted by statistical downscaling of CGCM2 and HadCM3 outputs, then inputted into monthly water balance model to simulate inflow runoff of Danjiangkou reservoir in the future. The results show that the runoff of Danjiangkou reservoir will be reduced in 2020s and 2050s, but increased in 2080s for CGCM2 model. For HadCM3 model, the runoff will be increased in these three periods compared with recent runoff.
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CAS
CSCD
2008年第4期78-82,共5页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
国际科技合作与交流计划项目(2005DFA20520)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50679063)
