汇率制度改革以来实际汇率升值对中美贸易影响的实证研究

The Empirical Study on the Influence of Appreciation of Real Exchange Rate on the Trade between China and U.S.since the Reform of Exchange Rate System

人民币汇改是一次制度性的变革,在作实证分析时,不能用跨不同制度的数据来解释汇改后的汇率波动对贸易的影响。因此,本文采用人民币汇率制度改革以来的月度数据和Johansen协整检验等计量分析方法,分别对人民币实际汇率如何影响中国对美出口和进口作了实证分析。通过分析发现,人民币实际汇率升值对改善中美贸易收支平衡状况存在显著影响。

The reform of RMB exchange rate is an institutional change.We should not use the data over different systems to interpret the influence of the exchange rate on trade after the reform of exchange rate system.Thus,this paper empirically studies how the real exchange rate of RMB affect on Chinese export and import to U.S.respectively with the monthly data after the reform of exchange rate system and by Johansen co-integration test and other econometric analysis methods.And the empirical result is that the appreciation of real exchange rate of RMB can remarkably improve the trade balance between China and U.S.