内蒙古粮食和耕地变化的动态分析及趋势预测

Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Cultivated Land Pressure in Inner Mongolia

本文运用耕地压力指数模型分析了内蒙古1978年以来耕地压力的变化规律,并结合SPSS软件,对其未来耕地压力的变化趋势进行回归分析。研究结果显示:1978-2006年,内蒙古耕地面积、粮食产量和人均占有量都有所增加,耕地压力指数呈现明显降低的趋势;但未来近十年内,耕地压力指数会增大,到2017年,耕地压力指数将达到1,之后耕地压力指数进一步增大,遭遇耕地危机,严重影响粮食生产的发展。提出了减轻耕地压力以确保粮食安全的措施。

Based on the model of cultivated land pressure index, this research analyzed the change law of cultivated land pressure in Inner Mongolia since 1978, and combining with SPSS software, analyzed the change trend of future cultivated land pressure by using regression analysis method. The results showed that： the cultivated land area, the total output and the quantity per capita of grain had been increasing, the pressure index of cultivated land had trended to decrease obviously between 1981 and 2006; but in the coming 10 years, the pressure index of cultivated land will be increased and it will be up to 1 in 2017, and then the pressure index of cultivated land will be further increased that the Inner Mongolia will encounter the cultivated land crisis, which will severely affects its development of grain production. it also puts forward some measures for easing cultivated land pressure to ensure the grain security.