摘要
从长期看,房地产价格应与社会经济发展水平相协调,如果房地产价格在一定时期内呈现出的某种趋势背离了宏观经济背景的支持,则市场必然隐藏着风险。从此角度出发,本文在协整和误差校正模型的框架下,分析了中国近年来房地产价格指数与主要宏观经济指标的长期均衡关系,得出了虽然近年来房地产价格上涨较快,但从总体上看,其变化有宏观经济背景的支持,房地产市场风险还不是很大的结论。
In the long-term, real estate prices should be in coordinating with the social economic level, if the tendency of real estate price has departed from the macroeconomics support, then the market may hide risk. The paper analyzes the dynamic relations of the China＇ s real estate price index and main macroeconomic indexes in recent years under the cointegration and error correction model frame. The finding is that real estate price has the support of macroeconomic back- ground, real estate market risk is not severe.
出处
《预测》
CSSCI
2008年第4期1-5,共5页
Forecasting
基金
全国统计科学研究重点资助项目(2007LZ039)
关键词
房地产
风险
协整
宏观经济
real estate
risk
cointegration
macroeconomic
