空间自相关在江苏省国民体质监测中的应用

Application of Spatial Autocorrelation on National Physical Fitness Surveillance in Jiangsu Province

目的:建立江苏省国民体质监测GIS数据库并分析肥胖和体质总体状况的空间分布规律。方法利用2000年和2005年对江苏省国民体质调查的数据,建立GIS空间数据库。利用Arc-GIS的空间分析模块,分别对江苏省成年人肥胖率和体质总分进行全局性和局域性空间自相关分析。结果全局性分析显示,无论是成年人肥胖率还是体质总分的增量变化的标准化结果Z(I)均大于1.65,说明江苏省成年人的肥胖率和体质总分的增量变化在全省范围内具有较好的空间结构性,存在明显的空间正相关性。局域性分析显示,全省成年人肥胖率的增量变化在苏南地区和苏北地区呈现明显的空间正相关性,苏中地区则呈现空间负相关性。另外,对体质总分增量变化的局域性分析显示,苏南地区主要表现为明显的空间正相关性,苏北地区表现为空间负相关性,苏中地区则无明显的相关性。结论:(1)各市成年人无论肥胖率还是体质总分的变化在空间上均具有趋同性;(2)肥胖率的增量在苏南和苏北呈现同步高增长的趋势,而在苏中则表现为同步低增长的趋势。体质总分的增量呈现出明显的两极分化,南部地区表现为同步增长的趋势,而在北部地区则表现出负向趋同性,形成一个不增长甚至负增长的空间聚集区域。

Objective To establish the GIS database of national fitness surveillance in Jiangsu Province and analyze the spatial distribution character of adult obesity and physical fitness conditions.Methods Through using national physical fitness investigation data of Jiangsu Province in 2000 and in 2005,the GIS surveillance database was established.Using the ArcGIS spatial analysis module,whole and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were applied to adult obesity and total score of physical fitness of Jiangsu Province.Results Whole spatial autocorrelation analysis demonstrated that standardized values Z（I）of the increments of adult obesity rate and total score of physical fitness were bigger than 1.65.That is to say,the increments of adult obesity rate and total score of physical fitness have the better spatial property in the entire province.Spatial variables have significant spatial positive correlation.Local spatial autocorrelation analysis demonstrated that the increment of adult obesity rate presented significant spatial positive correlation in the southern area and the northern area of Jiangsu Province and presented significant spatial negative correlation in the middle area of Jiangsu Province.Moreover,the increment of total score of physical fitness presented significant spatial positive correlation in the southern area and presented significant spatial negative correlation in the northern area of Jiangsu Province.But no significant correlation was found in the middle area of Jiangsu Province.Conclusion（1）the increments of adult obesity rate and total score of physical fitness in the cities of Jiangsu Province had spatial homogeneity;（2）The obesity rate presented the synchronized high increase in southern and northern area of Jiangsu Province,but displayed the synchronized low increase in the middle area of Jiangsu Province.The total score of physical fitness presented obvious polarization.The total score in southern area grew for synchronization,but in northern area did not grow,even decreased.