多元线性回归模型预测天津市用水量

Research on Forecasting the Water Consumption of Tianjin by Multiple Linear Regression Model

采用多元线性回归法进行城市用水总量预测。通过主成分分析法确定有效自变量为:用水人口、国民生产总值、工业用水重复率、年降水量、绿化覆盖率,应用R语言编制相关程序,建立数学模型,实现多元线性回归分析。通过残差图检验模型的有效性可知模型回归效果良好。本文通过简便的方法为较准确地预测城市用水量提供参考。

The water consumption of Tianjin was forecasted by multiple linear regression model. Firstly, using the main composition analysis method, the independent variables were chosen as population, GDP, rate of industrial water reuse, the average rainfall and the green cover percentage. Then established the dependent program by the R language and made a Mathematical Model to do the muhiple linear regression. It can be seen that the purpose of the regression model is good through researching the validity of the residual analysis model. This article provides the reference for accurately forecasting the urban water consumption by a simple method.