基于时间序列数据的粮食播种面积单产预测模型研究

Research on Forecast Model of Crops Yield of Per Unit Area Based on Time Series Data

采用了一种基于时间序列数据的灰色—线性回归模型对广西某市的粮食作物播种面积的单产进行了预测,并将预测结果及预测误差与线性回归模型及灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测结果进行了比较。结果表明,灰色—线性回归组合模型进行粮食作物耕地需求量预测精度较高,具有科学可行性。

The crops yield of per unit area in a City of Guangxi Province was predicted by a combination model of grey-linear regression based on time series data.The predicting results forecasting error of linear regression,grey GM(1,1)and combination model of grey-linear regression were compared.The research results showed that the predicting result of crops yield of per unit area by gray-linear regression model has high precision and scientific feasibility.