停车需求预测方法及应用

Parking Demand Forecasting Method and its Application

工程领域传统的停车需求预测方法存在两大缺陷,不能保证停车需求总量预测结果处于现实的合理区间,且模糊了停车泊位与车辆之间的内在联系。为了克服这些缺陷,提出了停车泊位总量约束的需求-供应预测方法,将停车需求划分为住宅区内、工作地和访问地3类,根据机动车拥有情况和分目的机动车出行OD进行预测,能够较为细致地预测各类停车需求的空间分布状况。最后,将停车泊位总量约束的需求-供应预测方法应用于《温州市停车发展专项规划》中,证明了该方法的合理性和可行性。

Parking demand forecasting methods used in current engineering practice suffer from two main shortcomings. Firstly, the estimated total parking volume may not always be within a reasonable range. Secondly, these methods do not differentiate various inter-relationships between parking spaces and vehicles. To address these issues, a demand-supply forecasting method with constrained total parking volume was proposed. The method classifies parking demand based on three types of parking locations, such as residential, working, and visiting areas. Different types of parking demands are then estimated according to information on vehicle ownership and OD trip purposes. The proposed method was applied to the ＂Wenzhou Parking Development Planning＂, which exhibits promising results in terms of providing more reasonable and feasible spatial distribution of parking demands of various types.