广西中短期极端温度客观预报方法研究

Study on Short-term and Medium-term Forecast of Extreme Temperature in Guangxi

利用欧洲中心（ECMWF）数值预报产品和常规资料，应用MOS预报方法和多元线性回归技术，研究建立了广西90个站1～7d的最高、最低温度预报方程，试报检验效果较好。预报结果在大多数情况下是可用的或是可参考的，为业务提供了有效的省级客观预报指导产品，对误差特点进行了分析并提出了改进方法。

Based on the ECMWF data and the conventional data, and multivariate linear regression the forecast equations by using the MOS forecast method of the maximum and minimum temperature in future ld to 7d on the 90 stations in Guangxi are set up. The experimental forecast got good results and they can be used in most days and this method is proposed as guidance products for the real optional field. The error characteristics of forecast are also analyzed and the way for improvement is put forward.