基于生态足迹模型对新疆可持续发展的动态分析

Dynamics of Sustainable Development of Xinjiang Base on Ecological Footprint

生态足迹是分析国家或地区自然资源可持续里用的重要指标。本文利用FAO数据、新疆统计年鉴等自然资源生产与消费数据、人口数据,采用可变世界单产法计算了1988～2005年新疆维吾尔自治区生态足迹。结果表明:从1988～2005年间,新疆的人均生态足迹显著上升,从1995年开始出现生态赤字且有逐渐加大的趋势。生态协调系数DS显示,1996年后新疆的资源利用超出生态环境的承载范围,其发展模式是不可持续的。

Ecological footprint is an important indicator to analyze the sustainable use of natural resources and has been widely used in the assessment on sustainable development worldwide. In this study, we got the data of resources production and consumption, population and land use from FAO database, Xinjiang Statistical Yearbooks. We calculated the ecological footprint of Xinjiang during the period from 1988 to 2005 with the method of variable world average yield. The results shows that there is the deficit in Xinjiang and the corresponding type of ecological is far and far from the 1.414, which shows the development of Xinjiang province is not sustainable.