降雨年型对南通棉花生产的影响

Effect of Rainfall Year to Cotton Production of the Nantong Region

通过对南通棉区降雨量和棉花产量的长系列资料的整理分析，揭示棉花生育期各时段的雨量与产量的关系，运用统计学的聚类分析方法，将生育期的雨量划分为特征鲜明的若干年型．用水量平衡方法进一步分析降雨年型对棉花生产的影响，最后建立统计模型，进行降雨（丰、歉）年型的预测。

The relationship of rainfall and cotton yield in each growing stage has been gained by analysing the long term system data of rainfall and cotton yield in the Nantong cotton production region. The growing stage rainfall can be divided into some characteristic years by the clustering analysis method. The effect of rainfall year to cotton yield can be farther analysed by the water balance method. Finally, a statistic model is developed for prediction of rainfall year (rich or dry).