能源保障风险体系的研究——以煤炭与石油为例

A Research for the Security Risk System of Energy——A Case Study of Coal and Oil

煤炭与石油是当今世界直到20世纪中叶才大量使用的传统一次能源。煤炭与石油保障风险是由于煤炭与石油供需矛盾所引起的风险,它贯穿于资源、生产、运输、销售和消费的全过程。为了认识风险、识别风险、规避风险和减少风险损失,必须开展煤炭与石油保障风险体系的研究。煤炭与石油保障风险可以按不同标识进行分类和分级。首先,按风险源不同,将风险分为资源风险、生产风险、运输风险、销售风险和消费风险5个类别;其次,按承险体不同,分为二次能源产业风险、耗能产业风险、其他产业风险、人文社会风险、生态环境风险5个类别;其三,按风险发生的概率高低划分为极低、低、中等、高和极高5个级别;第四,按风险损失大小,分为极高风险、高风险、中等风险、低风险、极低风险。我们开展煤炭与石油保障风险体系研究的目标是建立和健全包括煤炭与石油在内的能源保障风险管理机制,尽力规避风险;一旦风险发生,使损失降低到最小。

Coal and oil have been the primary traditional energy that began to be used extensively in the world since the mid 20th century. The security risks of coal and oil are resulted from the imbalance of demand and supply of coal and oil and exist in the process of production, transportation, marketing and consumption. For understanding, discerning and avoiding the risk and reducing the damages, it is necessary to do some research work on the security risks of coal and oil. According to the difference of standards, the security risks of coal and oil can be divided into different classes and levels. First, based on the difference of risk sources, the security risks of coal and oil are divided into five classes including resources risks, production risks, transportation risks, marketing risks and consumption risks. Second, based on the difference of risk bearing bodies, the security risks are divided into five classes including the risks of second energy industries, the risks of intensive energy industries, the risks of lower energy industries, the risks of human social systems and the risks of ecological environment systems. Third, based on the probabilities of risks occurrence, the security risks are divided into five levels including the extreme lowest, the lower, the moderate, the higher and the extreme highest. Forth, based on the risks damages, the security risks are divided into five levels including the extreme highest risks, the higher risks, the moderate risks, the lower risks and the extreme lowest risks. The goal of our research is to set up and strengthen the management mechanism of energy security risks to avoid risks or to reduce the damages when the risks occur.