边坡位移时间序列分析预测

Time Series Analysis on the Prediction of Slope Displacement

将边坡位移看成是一系列时刻t1,t2,t3,…,tn得到的时间序列,采用时间序列AR模型,对其进行模型识别、参数估计、位移预报。预测结果表明:AR模型实时建模的分析方法能较好地反映边坡位移变形的动态变化规律,准确预报出边坡位移的发展趋势。

The slope displacement data colleted by different time can be considered as a time series, and AR model, one of the time series analysis methods, can be used to predict the future displacement of slope. The prediction results show that this method is reasonable in the predication of the development tendency of slope displacement, and prediction of displacement is well coincident with the real situation.