摘要
本文利用中国1989—2004年的省际面板数据和动态面板GMM估计方法,考察了中国人口年龄结构(儿童和老年抚养系数)变化对居民消费的影响。结果发现,中国儿童抚养系数对居民消费具有负的影响,即中国儿童抚养系数的下降反而提高了居民消费率,但这种影响并不大;中国老年抚养系数变化对居民消费的影响并不显著。因此,中国人口年龄结构变化并不是中国目前居民消费率过低的原因。本文还发现,中国居民消费习惯非常稳定,因此,经济快速增长伴随着居民消费率的下降。
This paper conducts a dynamic panel analysis of the impacts of population age structure (measured by the youth dependency ratio and the old dependency ratio)on household consumption using panel data from Chinese provinces during the peried 1989--2004. The results suggest that the youth dependency ratio has a negative but small impact on the household consumption, while the old dependency ratio does not have a significant impact on household consumption. Hence the change of population age structure can not explain the lack of household consumption in China. In addition, we find that a strong habit persistency in consumer preference is the key reason for increased saving rates during the period of rapid economic growth.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第7期118-129,共12页
Economic Research Journal
基金
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(2006)
长江学者计划(2005-2008)
华中科技大学人文社会科学基金(2007)的资助
关键词
中国人口年龄结构
抚养系数
居民消费
动态面板
GMM估计
Chinese Population Age Structure
Dependency Ratio
Household Consumption
Dynamic Panel Data
GMM Estimation