中国人口年龄结构和居民消费：1989-2004

The Impacts of Population Age Structure on Household Consumption in China:1989—2004

本文利用中国1989—2004年的省际面板数据和动态面板GMM估计方法,考察了中国人口年龄结构(儿童和老年抚养系数)变化对居民消费的影响。结果发现,中国儿童抚养系数对居民消费具有负的影响,即中国儿童抚养系数的下降反而提高了居民消费率,但这种影响并不大;中国老年抚养系数变化对居民消费的影响并不显著。因此,中国人口年龄结构变化并不是中国目前居民消费率过低的原因。本文还发现,中国居民消费习惯非常稳定,因此,经济快速增长伴随着居民消费率的下降。

This paper conducts a dynamic panel analysis of the impacts of population age structure （measured by the youth dependency ratio and the old dependency ratio）on household consumption using panel data from Chinese provinces during the peried 1989--2004. The results suggest that the youth dependency ratio has a negative but small impact on the household consumption, while the old dependency ratio does not have a significant impact on household consumption. Hence the change of population age structure can not explain the lack of household consumption in China. In addition, we find that a strong habit persistency in consumer preference is the key reason for increased saving rates during the period of rapid economic growth.