我国股票市场走势对GDP影响的实证研究--基于传导机制的研究视角

An Empirical Study on the Stock Market Tendency Affecting GDP in China——A Perspective on the Transmission Mechanism

从理论上讲,股票市场走势通过传导机制对GDP产生影响,从而产生联动效应。现实中,我国股票市场自上世纪90年代成立以来,其对GDP产生的影响与理论描述却并不吻合。本文基于传导机制的研究视角,采用实证研究方法就我国股票市场走势对GDP(1992～2007年)的影响进行分析,从一个全新的研究视角揭示两者产生异动的原因。

Theoretically, the stock market tendency has impact on GDP through the transmission mechanism, thereby creating linkage effects. However the stock market impact on GDP in fact is not consistent with the description of the theory after Chinese stock market established in the 1990s. We use the empirical study on stock market tendency affecting GDP （1992--2007） in China from a new angle and then reveal the causes based on the transmission mechanism.