中国能源消费模式的转变及其解释

The Change of China's Energy Consumption Pattern and Its Implications

在20世纪的最后二十年里,中国国内生产总值(GDP)翻了两番,但是能源消费仅翻了一番,平均的能源消费弹性仅为0.5左右。然而自2002年进入新一轮的高速增长周期后,中国能源强度却不断上升,经济发展开始频频受到能源瓶颈问题的困扰。通过截取1998—2003年工业部门能源消费的数据,利用能源分解的方法研究得出:(1) 1998—2003年间,工业部门的能源节约完全是由能源强度的下降所贡献,这表明中国始自20世纪80年代初制定的一些能源节约政策效果依然显著。(2)在1998—2003年间,结构变动效应对能源消费主要起增量作用,这反映了中国近几年来产业结构重型化的倾向;而能源消耗强度效应对能源消费起减量作用,中国工业能源消费的增长之所以没有那么快,完全是由于能源消耗强度下降的作用。由此带来的政策启示是:中国提出的从提高能源效率和转变经济结构两个途径来解决环境问题的思路是非常正确的,但更可取的是提高能源效率,而不是把工业结构重型化倾向纠正过来以减少能源消费和环境污染。

In the past two decades in 20 century, China has quadrupled its GDP, but its energy consump- tion increased only one hundred percent. Since 2002, China has stepped onto a fast growth track, its ener- gy intensity continued to increase, and started to be troubled by energy shortage. Why did the energy con- sumption of China show such changes, and what is the relation between the change of energy consumption and the pattern of China＇s growth？ Through the decomposing methods of energy consumption, this paper drew out the data of the industrial sector＇s energy consumption from 1998 to 2003, found that the change of energy consumption was mostly caused by the technical progresses and the change of industrial structure, and conclude with some policy implications.