杭州市萧山区肺癌死亡30年动态分析及预测

THE DYNAMIC ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF THE MORTALITY OF LUNG CANCER DURING THE PAST 30 YEARS IN XIAOSHAN DISTRICT OF HANGZHOU

[目的]探讨杭州市萧山区居民肺癌死亡特征以及变化趋势,预测近5年肺癌死亡率水平。[方法]对杭州市萧山区1974～2006年肺癌死亡资料进行分析,采用灰色系统GM(1,1)进行未来5年肺癌死亡率预测。[结果]30年间,萧山区肺癌死亡率男性和女性均呈显著上升趋势,1997年及以后,肺癌已经在肿瘤死因顺位中排列第1;99.2%的肺癌死亡病例年龄都在35岁以上,73.9%在60岁以上。预测未来5年,男性和女性肺癌死亡率均呈上升趋势,到2011年萧山区肺癌死亡为将达到56.84/10万,其中男性达82.67/10万,女性达成32.53/10万。[结论]由于肺癌危险因素变化及人口增长、老龄化的双重作用,肺癌已成为萧山区近年来最常见的恶性肿瘤之一,其预防与控制应该成为萧山肿瘤控制计划制定和实施的重点之一。

[Objective] To investigate the characteristics of lung cancer mortality and its trend of change in Xiaoshan district of Hangzhou, and to predict the mortality of lung cancer in the future 5 years. [Methods] The mortality of tung cancer in Xiaoshan district of Hangzhou from 1974 to 2006 was analyzed by GM （ 1, 1 ） to predict the mortality of lung cancer in the further 5 years. [ Results] During the past 30 years, the mortality of lung cancer for male and female showed to significantly increase in Xiaoshan. The lung cancer had ranked the first since 1997. 99.2% of these patients with lung cancer were above 35 years old, and 73.9% of them were above 60 years old. In the further 5 years, the mortality of lung cancer for male and female showed to be an increasing trend. Till 2011, the mortality of lung cancer in Xiaoshan district would attend 56.84/105. Out of them, the mortality of male and female would be 82.67/105 and 32.53/105, respectively. [Conclusion] Due to the changes of risk factors of lung cancer arid double effects of population growth and aging, lung cancer has become one of the most common malignant neoplasm in Xiaoshan recently. The prevention and control for this disease will be an emphasis of formulating and enforcing cancer control strategy in Xiaoshan.