基于指标体系的流域水安全诊断评价模型

Diagnosis Assessment Model of Watershed Water Security Based on Index System

为在随机、模糊、经验等不确定性环境下定量评价流域水安全系统的总体状况,识别使流域水安全系统或其子系统处于不安全的主要指标,在流域水安全的理论分析、专家咨询和调研基础上建立了流域水安全诊断评价指标体系和评价等级标准,提出用基于加速遗传算法的模糊层次分析法筛选指标、确定水安全评价系统中各指标和子系统的权重,用集对分析方法构造流域水安全评价指标样本值隶属于可变模糊集"水安全诊断评价标准等级"的相对隶属度函数,建立了流域水安全诊断评价模型(SPA-DAM)。SPA-DAM在巢湖流域水安全诊断评价中的结果说明:流域近7 a来水安全等级值均处于临界安全附近,虽存在缓慢改善的趋势,但由于水资源安全和水灾害防治安全程度不高、波动性大,水环境安全和社会经济安全程度不高、改善缓慢,因此总体上该流域的水安全形势不容乐观;合理调控水资源利用率、人均水资源量、单位面积化肥施用量、环保投资占GDP比例、单位面积蓄水工程总库容、水利工程投资占GDP比例、区域开发指数、人口密度和科技教育投入占GDP比例等关键指标,是提高该流域水安全保障程度的重要措施。SPA-DAM的评价结果可靠合理,方法简便实用,在已知等级评价标准的多层次系统诊断评价问题中具有一定的应用价值。

In order to quantitatively judge comprehensive status of assessed watershed water security and identify the key indexes which lead to insecurity status of watershed water security system or its sub-systems under the random, fuzzy or experiential uncertainty conditions, the diagnosis assessment index system and evaluation grading standard of watershed water security were determined on the basis of theory analysis, expert consult and investiga- tion of watershed water security. The accelerating genetic algorithm based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was used to filtrate the index system and to determine the weights of both indexes and subsystems of water security diagnosis assessment system. The relative membership degree function of variable fuzzy set of the assessed samples according to criterion grades was determined by using set pair analysis method. Then a new diagnosis assessment model of watershed water security based on index system and set pair analysis method, named SPA-DAM for short, was es- tablished. The SPA-DAM was applied to assessing the water security system of Chaohu watershed of China. The re- suits show that the watershed has been near the critical security state during the last seven years. Its comprehensive water security situation was improved very slowly because the degrees of the water resource and water disaster secur- ity subsystems were low and fluctuated remarkablly, and the degrees of the water environment and society ＆ economy security subsystems of Chaohu watershed were not high. The key indexes of water resource utilization ratio, water resource amount of per person, fertilizer wastage of unit area, environment protection investment of unit GDP, storage capacity of water conservancy projections of unit area, water conservancy projection investment of unit GDP, regional exploitation exponent, population density, science and technology investment of unit GDP must be ted and controlled with reason in order to further heighten the regula safeguard degree of the watershed water security. The evaluation results of SPA-DAM are reasonable and reliable. SPA-DAM is simple and practical, and SPA-DAM can be applied to different muhiplayer comprehensive diagnosis assessment problems of complex systems under the known grading evaluation criterion.