国际国内原油价格互动关系的实证研究——基于国内油品市场放开前后的比较分析

Empirical Research on the Mutual Relation Between International and Domestic Crude Oil Price——on the basis of comparative research before and after opening domestic oil market

文章基于协整理论,采用向量自回归(VAR)模型分别对我国1999年1月至2004年4月,和2004年5月至2007年10月两个时间区间的布伦特和大庆原油价格月度数据进行了实证分析。得出三个结论:一是国际油价对国内油价的影响进一步增强;二是国内油价对国际油价的影响却在降低;三是市场在资源配置中的基础性作用正逐步显现。

Based on the theory of co-integration and using the VAR models and the price monthly date of Brent and Daqing crude oil,the paper makes a empirical analysis on the interaction between international and domestic crude oil prices during two time interval respectively from January 1999 to April 2004 and from May 2004 to October 2007.The empirical analysis reaches three conclusions: the first,impact of international oil price on domestic oil price is becoming stronger;the second,the impact of domestic oil price on international is lower than before;the third,the role of the market in the distribution of resources is gradually appearing.